Тому даруйте, що пишемо так коротко і схематично – це інформація для людей, які мало що знають про Україну. Розсилайте, якщо вважатимете за потрібне, ці матеріали, дописуйте до наших повідомлень свіжу інформацію, пишіть свої повідомлення – бо ж події йдуть просто потоком. Пишіть своїм знайомим, друзям, іноземним ЗМІ, розміщайте на фейсбуках. Більше інформації різними мовами тут і тут
This is Ukraine today:
C'est l'Ukraine d'aujourd'hui:
Dies ist die Ukraine heute:
To jest Ukraina dzisiaj:
Esta es la actual Ucrania:
Questo è l'Ucraina di oggi:
Esta é hoje a Ucrânia:
Ukrajina je danas:
Это Украина сегодня:
Це Україна сьогодні:
U.S., UK, Canada, Ireland, Australia, New Zealand, South Africa
Maidan Community Sector, Lviv: Dear friends!
International Renaissance Foundation, Kyiv: Dear colleagues!
Russia has carried out an act of aggression towards Ukraine. Russian troops have entered Crimea. Thus we take it upon ourselves to inform you about the events in Ukraine. We will provide you with yet another viewpoint regarding this conflict. We will do our best to remain fair and objective.
March 8 – Russia’s military intervention in Crimea is creating risks for all those NATO states in Europe, where Russian ethnic enclaves exist. American servicemen are ready to support their allies in Europe and to provide support to Ukraine. The US are sending a clear signal to Russia about being ready to answer any threat. All of the above was articulated by Martin Dempsey, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff according to Atlantic Council website http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/natosource/dempsey-us-military-will-fulfill-treaty-obligations-to-nato-allies.
March 8 – President of the European Commission José Manuel Barroso stated that European Union is ready to sign the political chapters of the Association Agreement with Ukraine immediately.
March 8 – Russia is not a party to the conflict in Ukraine, stated the Minister for Foreign Affairs of Russian Federation Sergey Lavrov. According to Lavrov: "Russia is ready to continue dialogue on the understanding that this dialogue should be honest and partner-like, without attempts to portray us as one of the sides in the conflict, as it may look like according to some our partners".
March 8 – OECD military observers have been prevented from entering Crimea for the third time. Pro-Russian separatists stopped them before entering Crimea by gunfire.
March 8 – Russian servicemen have started to conceal mines at the neck of land between Crimea and mainland Ukraine.
March 8 – US authorities knew about Putin’s plans one week before Russian invasion of Crimea.
March 8 – Pro-Russian separatist have occupied a military commissariat in Simferopol, the capital of Crimea, and let Russian servicemen in.
Helena Yakovlev-Golani and Nadiya Kravets
Is Crimean independence or annexation a good outcome for Russia?
The following is a guest post from political scientists Helena Yakovlev-Golani andNadiya Kravets, post-doctoral scholars at the University of Toronto and Harvard University, respectively. In it, they argue that the status quo – where Crimea remains a part of Ukraine – is actually a better outcome for Russia than independence or annexation. Links to previous Monkey Cage posts regarding developments in Ukraine can be found at the bottom of this post.
Today the quasi-legitimate parliament of Crimea declared its desire to join Russia and once again moved the referendum on the status of the peninsula to March 16 of this year. The Ukrainian parliament, on the other, has registered a bill on Ukraine’s NATOmembership and declared Crimea’s prime minister and the parliamentary speakeroutside the law. Officially, Moscow has not declared a war and it is unlikely that it ever will. What does that mean for the future of Crimea? We envision three possibilities – status quo, annexation, and independence – and consider their repercussions for domestic, regional and international politics. We argue that either independence or annexation could entail potentially serious long-term political and economic consequences for Russia.
Scenario 1: Status Quo
Crimea remaining as part of Ukraine has advantages for Russia and Ukraine. Under this scenario, Ukraine and Russia are likely to de-escalate the crisis through the negotiations of a political solution, possibly with the mediation of the United States, the European Union, and/or the United Nations. Russia’s concerns about Ukraine’s drift towards NATO, language policies and possible revision of the 2010 Kharkiv Accords, regarding the basing of the Russia’s Black Sea Fleet in Crimea and gas-supply terms, could be pacified by the Ukrainian government through a newly-negotiated bilateral agreement, acceptable to both sides. Ukraine, in turn, will be able to continue to pursue neutral approach in relation to its security posture, yet, in economic realms, will be able to move towards rapprochement and eventual membership in the European Union. This may lessen the tension and contribute to good-neighborly relations between the parties. Russia will benefit from this scenario in three key aspects.
First, it will save Russia money. A hot war scenario, as we will detail below, is extremely costly. Given that Russia’s economic situation has been worsening with declining currency and the flight of foreign direct investments from the emerging markets, and that Ukraine transports some 60 percent of Russian energy to Europe, any intervention would likely disrupt those sensitive ties and put Russian economy under further strain.
Second, Russia has an opportunity to normalize and stabilize the security situation in Europe. Since the Russian invasion of Georgia in 2008, the security environment in Europe has been tense with numerous references to the new dividing lines between Europe and Russia, while “lands in between” like Ukraine must made to choose between them. This division is neither viable nor desirable, but the current crisis could give Russia an opportunity to demonstrate that it is not a revisionist great power and it respects internationally recognized borders of independent states and seeks security in Europe not war.
Last, President Vladimir Putin may maintain and even increase his prestige internationally. Flexing muscles in Crimea will not win him fans in the region or in the world but rather increase the level of tension and contribute to Russia’s isolation. During the final days of the revolution in Kiev, Putin conveyed his ability to work together with the U.S. and the EU for a constructive solution to the problem threatening regional security. By annexing Crimea, he will be throwing all that goodwill away.
Scenario 2: Annexation
The annexation of Crimea could be problematic for Russia in a number of important ways.
First, annexing Crimea would be a costly enterprise. The peninsula is not self-sustainable and heavily depends on Kiev to balance its budget. Crimea has no fresh water supplies and it does not generate its own electricity; in fact, it receives 90 percent of water, 80 percent of electricity, 60 percent of other primary goods and 70 percent of its money from Kiev. Building or creating these capacities in Crimea will put a huge strain on the Russian budget, and given the ongoing slide of the Russian currency due to calamities in Ukraine, the decline is likely to continue together with the fall of foreign direct investment into Russia. Crimea with its 2 million person population would become an economic drain on Russia even more than the breakaway republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, whose populations totals some 250,000 and 45,000 respectively. In addition, economic problems would magnify due to reactions from Turkey and Europe.
Second, about 12 percent of Crimea’s population is ethnically Tatar. They have already called for Turkish mediation and refuse to recognize the recent seizure of power in Crimea as legitimate. Annexation could lead to a rise in inter-communal violence and instability on the peninsula. Enraging Turkey and Europeans, on whose direct borders hostilities could be fought, will disrupt economic ties and relations that Moscow has been trying to improve over the last decade. The approval of Turkish and European governments to build the South Stream gas pipeline on the bottom of the Black Sea could be revoked, which will seriously undermine Gazprom’s desire to maintain its monopoly on Caspian gas supplies to Europe.
Third, Russia’s annexation of Crimea would set a dangerous precedent for its powerful neighbor – China – to do the same in the Far East. By some estimates, there are up to 2 million legal and illegal Chinese immigrants that live in the Russia’s Far East, which borders densely populated Chinese Northern territories. For authorities in Beijing, the population problem is a dire issue and given that these territories historically belonged to China, Beijing might use logic similar to what is taking place in Crimea to reclaim its lands in the future. Moreover, the Crimean precedent could strengthen Japanese claims over the Russian-controlled Kuril Islands.
The annexation of Crimea may also cause further deterioration of Russia’s relations with its post-Soviet neighbors. Moscow’s aggressive action may provoke serious security concerns within the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) region, where Russia still enjoys geopolitical domination. Specifically, the annexation may be perceived as extremely threatening by neighboring and even somewhat friendly states, such as Belarus and Kazakhstan, where a huge Russian-speaking population resides. The Russians outside of the borders of the Russian Federation may be perceived as a “fifth column,” and, therefore, be exposed to discriminating policies or even persecutions. Domestically, this may provoke waves of immigration into Russia, while, regionally, it may put an end to Moscow’s reintegration projects such as the Custom Union. Ukraine, on the other hand, might be pushed to protect its security by seeking NATO’s membership and maybe even compelled to consider moving towards re-creating its nuclear weapons program.
Scenario 3: Independence
The third way the scenario playing out in Ukraine may end is with a declaration of independence by Crimea, but no annexation by Russia. Crimea’s independence, however, could turn out to be a mixed blessing for Russia. On the one hand, it might increase the security of the Russian Black Sea Fleet and possibly help to shorten the route for Gazprom’s South Stream (making it less expensive). On the other hand, it will offer no guarantee that the political balance in the peninsula will blow in its favor even a few years down the road. In particular, independence could be disadvantageous for Russia for three reasons.
First, the political situation in Crimea is likely to get further complicated by the demographic situation on the peninsula. At the moment, both the ethnic Ukrainian and Russian population is in rapid decline, while that of the Crimean Tatars is on the rise. In the long run, keeping Crimea aligned with Moscow will be difficult politically and costly economically.
Second, Crimea’s independence may not bear well on the cohesion of the Russian Federation, but could destabilize Russia internally. Already in the 1990’s, Tatarstan, Bashkortostan and Chechnya demanded greater political and economic autonomy from the center and opposed their natural resource proceeds being appropriated by Moscow to finance distant regions and imperial projects. Therefore, over the last two decades, officials in the Kremlin had to tread carefully with respect to its federal units so that separatist moods would not be inflamed. In addition, recent protests of people within Russia that disagree with Putin’s domestic and foreign policies will likely increase in the event of hostilities in Crimea.
Last, either Crimean independence or annexation will annul the major achievement of the U.S.-Russia “reset,” namely, its effort to stop global nuclear proliferation. The 1994 Budapest Memorandum, in accordance with which the United States, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom (later also signed by China and France) gave Ukraine political and security assurances that in exchange for Kiev’s renouncement of the world’s third largest nuclear arsenal, they would not threaten or invade the country in the future. It is due to this instrument that Ukraine was able to call on the meeting of the UN Security Council. Should this instrument fail, it could deal a fatal blow to future efforts to convince other countries to give up nuclear weapons (or abandon attempts to acquire them) in return for similar guarantees. To the extent that Russian security is ultimately threatened by nuclear proliferation, this could end up harming Russian long-range interests.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/
France, Belgique, Canada, Suisse
Le Secteur du peuple, Lviv: Chers collègues!
Fondation internationale "Renaissance", Kiev: Chers amis!
La Russie a commis un acte d’agression contre l’Ukraine. Les troupes russes sont entrées en Crimée. Par conséquent, nous voulons vous présenter des informations sur les événements en Ukraine. C'est un point de vue de plus. Nous essayerons d'être objectifs.
Le 8 mars – L’invasion militaire de la Crimée crée des risques pour tous les pays de l’OTAN en Europe où il y a des enclaves ethniques russes – déclaration du chef d’état-major des armées des Etats-Unis, le général Martin Dempsey. L’armée américaine est prête à soutenir ses alliés en Europe et aider l’Ukraine. Les Etats-Unis ont envoyé un signal clair à la Russie ; les américains sont prêts à répondre à la menace. Déclaration du chef d’état-major des armées des Etats-Unis, le général Martin Dempsey (déclaration publiée sur le site du Conseil de l’Atlantique de l’OTAN).
Le 8 mars – Le Président de la Commission européenne José Manuel Barroso a déclaré que l’Union européenne avait décidé de signer immédiatement le volet politique de l’accord d’association avec l’Ukraine.
Le 8 mars - La Russie n’est pas impliquée dans le conflit en Ukraine, a déclaré le Ministre des Affaires étrangères russe Sergueï Lavrov. « La Russie est prête à poursuivre le dialogue, mais ce dialogue doit être ouvert et honnête, d’égal à égal sans que l’on nous présente comme la partie adverse».
Le 8 mars – Pour la troisième foi de suite, les observateurs militaires de l’OSCE n’ont pas pu entrer en Crimée. Les séparatistes pro-russes ont arrêté les observateurs de l’OSCE par des tirs de mitrailleuses.
Le 8 mars – Les militaires russes ont commencé à miner l’isthme entre la Crimée et l’Ukraine continent.
Le 8 mars - Les autorités américaines étaient au courant des plans de Poutine une semaine avant l’invasion russe de la Crimée.
Le 8 mars - Les séparatistes pro-russes ont saisi le commissariat militaire à Simferopol, la capitale de Crimée, et y ont laissé entrer l’armée russe.
Italia, Scizzera, Vaticano
Settore pubblico di Maidan, L'viv: Gentili colleghi!
Fondazione Internazionale "Rinascimento", Kiev: Cari amici!
La Russia ha effettuato un atto di aggressione nei confronti dell'Ucraina. Le truppe russe sono entrate nella regione.Per questo abbiamo trovato il coraggio di informarvi di ciò che sta accadendo in Ucraina. E' un'ulteriore punto di vista. Ma cercheremo di essere il più obiettivi possibile.
8 marzo - L'invasione militare della Crimea da parte della Russia crea dei rischi per tutti i paesi facenti parte della NATO in Europa, in cui ci sono enclavi etniche russe, ha dichiarato il Capo dello stato maggiore congiunto degli Stati Uniti, il generale Martin Dempsey. L'esercito americano è pronto a sostenere i suoi alleati in Europa nel dare sostegno all'Ucraina. Gli Stati Uniti hanno inviato un chiaro segnale alla Russia riguardo al fatto che sono pronti a rispondere alla minaccia. Lo ha ribadito il Capo dello stato maggiore congiunto degli Stati Uniti, il generale Martin Dempsey, comunica il sito della NATO.
8 marzo - Il presidente della Commissione europea José Manuel Barroso ha dichiarato che l'Unione Europea ha deciso di firmare immediatamente le sezioni politiche dell'accordo di associazione con l'Ucraina.
8 marzo - La Russia non è una delle parti del conflitto in Ucraina, ha dichiarato il ministro degli Esteri della Federazione russa Sergei Lavrov. Secondo lui, "la Russia è pronta a continuare il dialogo, a patto che il dialogo sia onesto, da partner, senza tentativi di farci risultare una parte del conflitto, come cercano di farlo alcuni dei nostri partner".
8 marzo - Per la terza volta, gli osservatori militari dell'OSCE non sono riusciti ad entrare sul territorio della Crimea. I separatisti filorussi hanno fermato gli osservatori dell'OSCE con spari di fucile.
8 marzo - I militari russi hanno iniziato la posa delle mine sull'istmo tra la Crimea e l'Ucraina.
8 marzo - Il governo degli Stati Uniti era al corrente dei piani di Putin una settimana prima dell'invasione russa della Crimea.
8 marzo - I separatisti filorussi hanno preso il controllo del commisariato militare nella capitale della Crimea, Simferopoli e vi hanno introdotto i militari russi.
Post scriptum: Si prega di diffondere queste informazioni il più ampiamente possibile.
Polska
Ludowy sektor Majdan, Lwów: Szanowni Państwo!
Międzynarodowa Fundacja "Renaissance", Kijów: Drodzy Przyjaciele!
Rosja dokonała aktu agresji przeciw Ukrainie. Wojska rosyjskie weszło na Krymie. Własnie dlatego mamy odwagę informować o wydarzeniach na Ukrainie. Jest to kolejny punkt widzenia. Staramy się też być obiektywnymi.
8 marca – Inwazja wojskowa Rosji na Krymie stwarza zagrożenie dla wszystkich państw NATO w Europie, gdzie są rosyjskie enklawy etniczne, powiedział Przewodniczący Kolegium Połączonych Szefów Sztabów USA gen. Martin E. Dempsey. Armia USA jest gotowa wspierać swoich sojuszników w Europie i okazać wsparcie Ukrainie. USA wysyłają wyraźny sygnał dla Rosji, że są gotowe do reagowania na zagrożenie. O tym oświadczeniu Przewodniczącego Kolegium Połączonych Szefów Sztabów USA gen. Martina E. Dempsey poinformowała strona internetowa Rady Atlantyckiej NATO.
8 marca – Przewodniczący Komisji Europejskiej Jose Manuel Barroso oświadczył, że Unia Europejska zdecydowała się natychmiast podpisać część polityczną umowy stowarzyszeniowej z Ukrainą.
8 marca – Rosja nie jest stroną konfliktu z Ukrainą, oświadczył minister spraw zagranicznych Rosji Siergiej Ławrow. Powiedział: "Rosja jest gotowa do kontynuowania dialogu przy uświadomieniu, że dialog musi być uczciwym, partnerskim, bez prób wystawić nas prawie jako stronę konfliktu, jak to próbują przedstawić niektóre z naszych partnerów".
8 marca – Obserwatorom wojskowym OBWE po raz trzeci nie udało się dostać się do Krymu. Prorosyjskie separatyści na Krymie przeszkodzili im strzałami z automatów.
8 marca – Rosyjscy żołnierzy rozpoczęli minowanie przesmyku pomiędzy Krymem i kontynentalną Ukrainą.
8 marca – Władze USA wiedzieli o planach Putina na tydzień przed rosyjską inwazją na Krymie.
8 marca – Prorosyjscy separatyści zajęli w stolicy Krymu Symferopolu komisariat wojskowy i wpuścili tam żołnierzy rosyjskich. Postscriptum: Proszę rozprzestrzeniać tę informację jak najszerzej.
Portugal, Brazil
O Sector Civil do Maidan, Lviv: Caros colegas!
Fundação Internacional "Renaissance", Kyiv: Caros amigos!
Rússia realizou um ato de agressão contra a Ucrânia. As tropas russas entraram na Criméia. Por isso tomamos a coragem de informar-vos sobre os acontecimentos na Ucrânia. Este é um dos pontos de vista. Vamos tentar ser imparciais. Por isso tomamos a coragem de informar-vos sobre os acontecimentos na Ucrânia. Este é um dos pontos de vista. Vamos tentar ser imparciais.
Novidades de 8 de Março:
A invasão militar da Rússia na Criméia cria riscos para todos os países da OTAN na Europa onde existem enclaves étnicos da Rússia, disse o chefe de comitê unido de chefes de estado-maiores dos EUA general Martin Dempsey. O Exército dos EUA está pronto para apoiar os seus aliados na Europa e apoiar a Ucrânia. EUA enviaram um sinal claro para a Rússia que estão pronto para responder à ameaça. Isto foi afirmado pelo chefe de comitê unido de chefes de estado-maiores dos EUA general Martin Dempsey, de acordo com o site do Conselho Atlântico da OTAN.
Presidente da Comissão Europeia José Manuel Durão Barroso disse que a União Europeia decidiu imediatamente assinar seções politicas de acordo de associação com a Ucrânia.
A Rússia não é uma parte do conflito na Ucrânia, disse o chefe do Ministério dos Negócios Estrangeiros Sergey Lavrov. Ele disse: "A Rússia está pronta para continuar o diálogo com o entendimento de que o diálogo deve ser honesto, de parceria, sem tentar nos colocar quase como uma parte do conflito, como alguns dos nossos parceiros estão tentando apresentá-lo. "
Observadores militares da OSCE para a terceira vez não conseguiram entrar na Criméia. Separatistas pró-russos pararam os observadores da OSCE com tiros de fuzis de assalto na Criméia.
As tropas russas começaram a colocar minas no istmo entre a Criméia e parte continental da Ucrânia.
Autoridades dos EUA sabiam sobre os planos do Putin uma semana antes da invasão russa da Criméia.
Separatistas pró-russos tomaram o comissariado militar na capital da Criméia Simferopol e deixaram militares russos entrar lá.
Россия
Общественный сектор Майдана, Львов, информирует: Уважаемые коллеги!
Международный фонд Возрождение, Киев, информирует: Дорогие друзья!
Россия осуществила акт агрессии в отношении Украины. Российские войска вошли в Крым. Поэтому мы берем на себя смелость информировать вас о событиях в Украине. Это еще одна точка зрения. Мы постараемся быть объективными.
8 марта - Военное вторжение России в Крым создает риски для всех стран НАТО в Европе, где есть российские этнические анклавы, заявил глава Объединенного комитета начальников штабов США генерал Мартин Демпси. Американские военные готовы поддержать своих союзников в Европе и оказать поддержку Украине. США посылают четкий сигнал России о том, что готовы ответить на угрозусообщает сайт Атлантического совета http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/natosource/dempsey-us-military-will-fulfill-treaty-obligations-to-nato-allies.
8 марта - Президент Европейской комиссии Жозе Мануэл Баррозу заявил, что Европейский союз готов немедленно подписать политическуючасть соглашения об ассоциации с Украиной.
8 марта - Россия не является одной из сторон конфликта в Украине заявил глава МИД РФ Сергей Лавров: "Россия готова продолжать диалог при понимании, что диалог должен быть честным, партнерским, без попыток выставить нас чуть ли не как сторону конфликта, как это пытаются представить некоторые наши партнеры".
8 марта - Военные наблюдатели ОБСЕ в третий раз не смогли попасть на территорию Крыма. Наблюдателей ОБСЕ пророссийские сепаратисты остановили в Крыму выстрелами из автоматов.
8 марта - Российские военные начали минирование перешейка между Крымом и материковой Украиной.
8 марта - Власти США знала о планах Путина за неделю до российского вторжения в Крым.
8 марта - Пророссийские сепаратисты захватили в столице Крыма Симферополе военный комиссариат и запустили туда российских военных.
Постскриптум: Пожалуйста, распространите эту информацию как можно шире.
Україна
Громадський сектор Майдану, Львів, інформує: Шановні коллеги!
Міжнародний фонд Відродження, Київ, інформує: Дорогі друзі!
Росія здійснила акт агресії щодо України. Російські війська ввійшли у Крим. Тому ми беремо на себе відвагу інформувати вас про події в Україні. Це ще одна точка зору. Ми постараємося бути об'єктивними.
8 березня - Військове вторгнення Росії до Криму створює ризики для всіх країн НАТО в Європі, де є російські етнічні анклави, заявив глава Об'єднаного комітету начальників штабів США генерал Мартін Демпсі. Американські військові готові підтримати своїх союзників у Європі і надати підтримку Україні . США посилають чіткий сигнал Росії про те, що готові відповісти на загрозуповідомляє сайт Атлантичної ради http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/natosource/dempsey-us-military-will-fulfill-treaty-obligations-to-nato-allies.
8 березня - Президент Європейської комісії Жозе Мануел Баррозу (José Manuel Barroso) заявив, що Європейський союз вирішив негайно підписати політичні розділи угоди про асоціацію з Україною.
8 березня - Росія не є однією із сторін конфлікту в Україні заявив глава МЗС РФ Сергій Лавров: "Росія готова продовжувати діалог при розумінні, що діалог має бути чесним, партнерським, без спроб виставити нас мало не як сторону конфлікту, як це намагаються представити деякі наші партнери".
8 березня - Військові спостерігачі ОБСЄ втретє не змогли потрапити на територію Криму. Спостерігачів ОБСЄ проросійські сепаратисти зупинили в Криму пострілами з автоматів.
8 березня – Російські військові почали мінування перешийку між Кримом та материковою Україною.
8 березня - Влада США знала про плани Путіна за тиждень до російського вторгнення в Крим.
8 березня – Проросійські сепаратисти захопили у столиці Криму Сімферополі військовий комісаріат і запустила туди російських військових.
Постскриптум: Будь ласка, розповсюдьте цю інформацію якомога ширше.
